You have watched your account do exactly what we said it could do. The oil trades you are holding right now are up. That is not a projection and it is not a promise. It is a result you can see in your own account, in real time. Take a moment with that thought.
We built this relationship because you wanted a partner who reads markets, spots the move early, and builds a strategy that respects the risk. That is exactly why we are writing to you today. We believe oil is heading well past a hundred and fifty dollars a barrel.
Where we believe this goes
$150 A Barrel
Brent has held above ninety dollars for most of August, and crude is trading in the mid-nineties today. That range is the floor now, not the ceiling.
The oil market is badly undersupplied. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has not been lifted. More Gulf states are being hit. Every peace negotiation has failed, no new talks are scheduled, and the fighting has started again.
The warning lights are flashing
An energy crisis does not announce itself once. It announces itself everywhere at the same time.
✓ European natural gas storage is running at about half of where it should be heading into the winter heating season.
✓ US diesel has passed six dollars a gallon on the East Coast and seven on the West Coast. The highest ever recorded.
✓ Global oil supply is short by more than four billion barrels.
✓ Emergency reserve inventories are running out.
✓ Refinery spreads have never been wider.
✓ Distillate prices are printing all-time record highs.
✓ And the heaviest demand season of the year, winter heating, has not even started.
$150 oil will be the new normal.
A golden opportunity for your golden years.
Let us face facts. It takes more money to finance your life as you age. Looking after your health gets expensive: the blood tests, the colonoscopy, the cataract surgery, and never forget the dental bills.
I find myself hiring people for jobs I used to do, like home repairs. Add the rising price of everything I need, water heaters, pool pumps, solar batteries, lumber, with the quality dropping at the same time, and I am catching hell. My twenty-dollar steak dinner is a hundred dollars. My monthly cash burn is soaring.
And it does not stop there. The kids come for more help. Friends and extended family are hard to say no to.
Let me tell you a story
Back in the day, when my family had the seafood factory in Honduras, I got trapped into financing and helping run that far-flung enterprise. As is customary at Christmas, people came and asked for help.
I found myself sitting under the Christmas tree handing out gifts to the employees and the clients. Everyone got a turkey, a crate of grapes and a big box of apples.
Then came the requests. Tuition for a kid in school. Cancer therapy for a mother. Cash to fix the car to get to work. Money to save a simple house from foreclosure. As the list got longer and more expensive I got a case of the dumb ass and said to one young girl: nobody helps me, but I have to help you.
She said: we need your help, but you do not need anyone, because it is God who helps you. Shot down in flames.
The position
This could be my greatest trade ever
And I have had some big ones. Inventories have never been lower as a percentage of demand, and the prospect of disruption now runs further into the future than at any point I can remember. There is no end in sight to the embargo on Gulf supply. If relief does not come soon, we are looking at rationing this winter.
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4 BILLION
Barrels short. The gap the market still has to price in.
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HALF
Europe’s gas storage, with winter in front of it.
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$7.00
A gallon for West Coast diesel. A record, and it is still September.
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ZERO
Negotiations on the table. Nothing scheduled, nothing pending.
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We have to be crystal clear
What we see is a strong probability, not a guarantee, that this supply crisis drives oil to new all-time highs. Oil is volatile. Prices move against a position as fast as they move for it. You already know this from experience, and that is exactly what makes the gains sitting in your account meaningful.
Your current funding level caps how much of this move you can capture. Adding capital increases your trading capacity and your exposure to the upside we are projecting, under the same risk principles that have governed your account so far. More capital deployed also means more capital at risk. We want you going into this with total clarity on that trade-off.
The recommendation
It is time to double down on this oil trade
Double your positions at each average point, and duplicate the positions you are already holding.
If you want to talk through increasing your funding to take fuller advantage of the oil position, call Jim and Nick Guarino directly.
CALL JIM AND NICK GUARINO · +1 913 871 0701
Omega International Trust Ltd
Nick Guarino
Omega International Trust Ltd
Nick note
Double Down
A very successful trading technique. When you are in a trade that is making money and your reasoning is proving out, you increase your leverage by doubling the position as the market keeps moving your way.
Funnily enough, I did not discover it trading.
In the late 1970s, a new casino opened in Atlantic City, Resorts International. Friends talked me into going one weekend. I walked in with forty dollars in my pocket and was introduced to card counting at blackjack, which was easy for me because I remember cards. They were dealing from a four-deck shoe, all cards face up, and there was a two-dollar table, which made it easy to practice on a small budget. Remembering the cards came naturally. The new dealers and the pit boss had no idea I was tracking the count. That first night I turned forty dollars into four hundred.
As I got confident I moved up to the higher-limit tables. That is where I learned splitting, specifically splitting tens and face cards under very specific conditions. Every book says never split tens. Card counting changes the math. When the count heavily favored me and the dealer was showing a bust card, splitting became a weapon. Sometimes I split the same hand several times, four hands in play, and it looked insane to everyone around me. I was not guessing and I was not lucky. I was following the numbers.
All good things end. After taking a huge pot, on my way to cash in, the heavies walked me to the office. They had finally worked out what I was doing. What took you so long? I finally reached out to my uncle Andy, and he intervened. I left with all my fingers and all my cash because the family made a call, and I promised him I would never do it again.
It turned out to be a good thing, because I took the technique somewhere else and used it not for thousands, not for tens of thousands, but for millions. When the odds are in my favor I double down. If a trade is moving my way and the fundamentals keep backing me up, I double my position.
Discipline, not hope
The key is discipline. You do not press because you are hoping. You press because the odds are demonstrably in your favor. Now is just such a time in our oil trade.
This is a dream come true. In trading terms, we need to double down.
A trade like this does not come every day. But when it does, it can change your life.
Risk capital only
This trade involves only your genuine risk capital, the money you can afford to lose. It carries a significant risk of loss. Do not invest your retirement savings or any funds you cannot afford to lose.
