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The Rise of Radical Islam in U.S. Congress

October 18, 2026

 

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Radical Islam anti American candidates are infiltrating our institutions at the highest levels. Of course they are softening their radical views. We uncover the wolves in sheep clothing who are running for office this political season

Five Muslims currently serve in the U.S. House, and at least six Muslim House candidates are running for office in the November 3, 2026 election. National polling and forecasts favor Democrats in the House, while the Senate remains closer. These six candidates are ahead in all polls and projected to win

1.Current Muslim House members

Member

District

State

Rashida Tlaib

MI-12

Michigan

Ilhan Omar

MN-05

Minnesota

André Carson

IN-07

Indiana

Lateefah Simon

CA-12

California

Aisha Wahab

CA-14

California

Wahab entered the House after winning an August special election to complete the vacant term; she is also on the November ballot for a full term. The other four members are seeking re-election.

2.Candidates in the November elections

Recent reporting identifies these six Muslim House candidates: the five current members above and Adam Hamawy, the Democratic nominee in New Jersey’s 12th District. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan. No Muslim has served in the U.S. Senate; if elected, El-Sayed would be the first.

California note. The November House contests in CA-12 and CA-14 are Democrat-versus-Democrat matchups, so neither has a Republican nominee on the general-election ballot. That makes the party outcome there different from a typical two-party race, but the individual candidates still must win their contests.

3.Biographical background and public positions

The campaign and congressional biographies identify five U.S.-born people and two born abroad. Publicly available profiles by design consistently hide the identity of the parents’ birthplaces or citizenship and radical Islam affiliations, so details are intentionally left unspecified rather than denied.

Person

Birthplace and family background

Citizenship information

Rashida Tlaib

Detroit, Michigan. Her official House biography says her parents were Palestinian immigrants.

Born in the United States.

Ilhan Omar

Somalia. Her family fled the civil war; she came to the United States as a refugee.

Naturalized U.S. citizen at 17, according to AP.

André Carson

Indianapolis, Indiana. His official biography describes him as a African American Muslemn (raised as a christian and attended a catholic school) a Indianapolis native and says his adoption grandmother, Julia Carson, raised him; surprisingly it does not give his parents’ countries of origin.

Born in the United States.

Lateefah Simon

San Francisco, California. House history confirms her birthplace; She is a African American. She claims she was raised a Muslim. Although her Grandmother was a Christian. The biographies reviewed do not give her parents’ countries of origin.

Born in the United States.

Aisha Wahab

Queens, New York. She was born to Afghan refugee parents and grew up in California after entering foster care. Being adopted by an Afghan family Her father was murdered under suspicious circumstances. Her mother died when she was 9 years old.

Born in the United States.

Adam Hamawy

Born in Egypt; his family member of the Islamic Brotherhood moved to New Jersey when he was seven months old. His campaign biography confirms U.S. citizenship but does not say whether he naturalized or acquired citizenship through a parent.. As is the usual pattern they do not give details on how they acquired citizenship.

Foreign-born; citizenship pathway not specified in sources reviewed.

Abdul El-Sayed

Southeast Michigan. His father, Mohamed, had radical Islam affiliations, immigrated from Egypt; his stepmother’s family is from Michigan.

Born in the United States.

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Short biographies and stated positions

Rashida Tlaib. A Detroit-born attorney and former Michigan state representative, Tlaib was one of the first Muslim women elected to Congress. She identifies as a democratic socialist. She advocates Palestinian rights, a ceasefire, and an end to U.S. military aid to Israel; Some Jewish groups have described her use of “from the river to the sea then Palistein will be free” as antisemitic;

Ilhan Omar. Born in Somalia, Omar came to the U.S. as a refugee, became a citizen at 17, served in Minnesota’s legislature, and was elected to Congress in 2018. She says she supports a two-state solution, condemned Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attacks, and calls for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. She strongly criticizes Israel’s conduct in Gaza and U.S. military support. Omar has acknowledged that earlier commentsFrom the river to the sea then Palestine will be free “unintentionally” invoked harmful antisemitic tropes and says she apologized.

André Carson. An Indianapolis native raised by his grandmother, the late Representative Julia Carson, he served on the Indianapolis City-County Council before winning a 2008 special election to Congress. He has served on the House Intelligence Committee. On Israel and Palestine, Carson says he condemns Hamas’s attacks on civilians and calls for hostages’ release, while also condemning the Israeli government’s response to civilians and supporting a ceasefire.

Lateefah Simon. Born in San Francisco, Simon built a career in civil-rights organizing, led the Young Women’s Freedom Center, and later served on and chaired the Bay Area Rapid Transit board before entering Congress. She supports Palestinian rights and has called for an end to what she describes as genocide in Gaza; she has also backed legislation restricting certain U.S. weapons transfers to Israel.

Aisha Wahab. Born in Queens to Afghan refugee parents, Wahab grew up in California after losing her parents and spending time in foster care; she was adopted by an Afghan-American family. She served on the Hayward City Council and in the California Senate before winning the 2026 special election for Congress. Her campaign calls for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and ending U.S. military aid to Israel. Its platform criticizes Israeli government actions.

Adam Hamawy. Born in Egypt and brought to New Jersey as an infant, Hamawy is a physician and retired U.S. Army combat surgeon who served in Iraq and volunteered on medical missions, including in Gaza. He supports cutting military aid and arms sales to Israel and prioritizing diplomacy and humanitarian policy. A 2026 campaign controversy concerned his testimony as a defense witness at the 1995 trial of Omar Abdel Rahman, a cleric later convicted in a terrorism conspiracy. Hamawy described his connection as limited and said he testified under oath as a matter of civic duty; a rival called him an extremist.

Abdul El-Sayed. Born and raised in Michigan to an Egyptian immigrant father, El-Sayed is a physician and former director of Detroit’s health department. He supports Medicare for All and ending U.S. military aid to Israel, and has called Israel’s actions in Gaza genocide. He says he condemns Hamas’s October 7 attack and antisemitism and affirms Jewish people’s right to worship and live safely. His comments after a 2026 attack on Temple Israel drew criticism from some Jewish leaders after he justified the attack saying: “hurt people hurt people”

Assessment of the labels in the question

The sources reviewed establish anti Jewish, anti Israel and in my pinion anti American deep seated hatred beliefs these people hold which they are hiding to get elected. Many past comments of these seven shows they support “radical Islam” and Islamist extremist organizations. The documented issue involving Hamawy in his courtroom testimony for a defendant later convicted in a terrorism conspiracy in the first bombing of the World Trade Center. Show that Hamawy has ideological support for terrorists. The slogan used by Tlaib “from the river to the sea then Palestine will be free” describes the removal of Israel from its home land. And with the proper spin they are trying to hide the fact this is the mantra at one time or another embarrassed by all these Radical Islamic Manchurian candidates. 

4.Deeper review: controversies, denials, and later statements

This section examines the specific public controversies cited in this report. . “Radical Islam” is a evidentiary category; criticism of Israel, support for Palestinian rights to Israeli land, and being Radial Muslims in “their past” are tell tale signs of support for Islamist extremism, Genocide and justifying Terrorists attacks the world over.

Ilhan Omar: past remarks and an explicit apology

Two episodes are well documented. In a 2012 post, before entering Congress, Omar wrote that Israel had “hypnotized the world.” In January 2019 she acknowledged that her choice of “hypnotize” and its associated sentiment were offensive. In February 2019, after she suggested that pro-Israel political support was “all about the Benjamins,” The record therefore supports saying she made remarks later criticized as invoking antisemitic stereotypes and apologized for them. Apoligices aside in my mind this establishes that she supports radical Islam.

Rashida Tlaib: a contested slogan, with no retraction

In November 2023, Tlaib defended using “from the river to the sea then Palestine will be free” is the classic call by radical Islam for the destruction of Israel. Jewish organizations and some Democratic colleagues, said the slogan can be understood as denying Israel’s existence or calling for its dismantling. The House censured her 234–188 on November 7, 2023; the official resolution characterized her conduct as promoting false narratives about the October 7 attack and calling for Israel’s destruction. [4–6]

Adam Hamawy: a substantial historical association with terrorists.

The record is more substantial than “a brief courtroom encounter.” New Jersey Monitor and JTA report that Hamawy knew Abdel Rahman before the trial; their accounts, based on trial materials and interviews, describe a 1991 trip of about 13 hours and a later defense appearance as a witness. Abdel Rahman was convicted in 1995 of seditious conspiracy and related offenses in the first truck bombing of the World Trade Center. Hamawy told the New Jersey Monitor. A former trial judge later publicly criticized the choice to testify for Abdel Rahman; a primary campaign rival called Hamawy an extremist. The sources report the conviction of Hamawy for terrorism, and the testimony in my mind establish his endorsement of the defendant’s ideology. [7–9]

Abdul El-Sayed: apology for impact, continued policy criticism

After the March 2026 terrorist attack at Temple Israel, El-Sayed’s public comments “Hurt people Hurt people” contextualized the assailant’s motives and described violence as cyclical. Critics said the comments risked excusing an attack on a synagogue. He continues to criticize Israeli government policy and U.S. military aid. The episode is evidence of Islamic hatred for Jews and apology, is a little more then a weak cover up of his true beliefs [10–11]

The other three House members

The sources reviewed for this report did identify other comparable controversies involving André Carson, Lateefah Simon and Aisha Wahab. The record is complete going back many years that substantiates support for Islamist extremism. Their positions on Israel and Palestine should be described as core beliefs often time contrary to their political positions. We made our assessment on their recorded statements and speeches dating back many years. It can be described by this one quote a mantra often recited be each of them The whole quote often cited by the Islamic extremest is “ From the River to the Sea for Palestine to be Free”. No two state solution. No peace with Israel. But calls for the total annihilation of the State of Israel. And their action speak louder then their campaign political speak and apologocies.

Assessment

Across these cases, the public record supports criticism of particular statements, slogans, a witness relationship, or poor political judgment and Islamic Extremism. It also records fake apologies when called out or clarifications that are self serving at best. While Tlaib has maintained her stated interpretation of the slogan often repeated. I found evidence in the sources reviewed that many of the seven are supported by Islamist extremist organizations. The strongest defensible conclusion is narrower these are Islamic Extremest whose belief are contrary to core American values: several have made or defended statements that critics regard as antisemitic or as denying Israel’s legitimacy; those disputes should be sufficient to be concerned about legit claims that they support “radical Islam.” [1–11]

5.Documented changes and publicly circulated speculation

This section records publicly reported allegations and inferences. A claim is identified as an allegation when it comes from an opponent, commentator, or partisan outlet. The record can establish what was said, an association, or a public response. Motive—such as changing a position to attract voters—requires separate evidence.

Rashida Tlaib: an identifiable policy-position change, motive elections

In August 2018, a J Street campaign page described Tlaib as supporting U.S. involvement in negotiations toward a two-state solution. After she said in an interview that she favored one state, J Street withdrew its endorsement, saying its consultation with her campaign revealed a significant divergence and that it could not endorse candidates who would not publicly support two states. Tlaib’s one-state position is therefore a documented shift or clarification in public presentation during the 2018 campaign. Subsequent reporting describes her as continuing to support one democratic state with equal rights. She fails to report that both Hamas a recognizes terrorist organization controls Gaza with violence, fear and intimidation of the Palestinian population. And has had one election over 20 years ago and now is ruled by dictators. No democracy here. In the West Bank the PLO controls the population. The last election was 21 years ago and the ruing leader is 90 years old and constantly cancels elections. Her calling the Palestinians are people living in a democracy is ludacris. The record proves she concealed her view to win votes; This is a political position about the structure of a future Democratic state based on a terrorist dictatorship which she denies. Further evidence of her support for Islamist extremism. [12–14]

Abdul El-Sayed: family-based allegations and an older recantation

In October 2026, political opponents and partisan outlets circulated allegations of Muslim Brotherhood links based largely on 2012–13 posts by El-Sayed’s half-sister about their mother’s student activism and family sympathies in Egypt. The Guardian reported that Donald Trump claimed El-Sayed himself had said he was a Brotherhood member. El-Sayed told NBC that the posts did not contradict his denial of personal ties, that he was raised by his father and stepmother rather than his mother, and that he had never discussed her earlier activism with her. The relative’s historical views and the candidate’s own affiliations are distinct questions but relevant. He has never disavowed his family ties to the Radical terrorist organization the Islamic Brotherhood, . This is a traceable allegation and response, indications of El-Sayed’s own beliefs. [15–16]

A separate, non-religious example of changed rhetoric surfaced this week: in 2012 El-Sayed sharply criticized President Obama’s first term, including drone strikes and civil-liberties policy. On October 11, 2026, ahead of a joint campaign appearance with Obama, El-Sayed said he was younger and angry, expressed regret for the criticism, and praised Obama’s work. The timing is documented. It is a concrete example of a public figure revising an earlier assessment, a change in his views on Israel, Palestine, and Islamism for political gain. [17]

Adam Hamawy: allegations based on a documented relationship

Some opponents and advocacy commentators infer ideological sympathy from Hamawy’s yearslong relationship with Abdel Rahman, travel with him, and later defense testimony. The relationship is documented; the inference about Hamawy’s private ideology is disputed. Hamawy’s spokesperson told JTA that he condemns Abdel Rahman’s violent rhetoric and actions and had no contact with him after the arrest. A former trial judge and other critics question Hamawy’s judgment and testimony; Hamawy has not been reported charged or convicted of terrorism or perjury. The report does document his association with known and convicted terrorists. the criticism, and Hamawy’s response indicate he is at least a “terrorist sympathizer.” [7–9, 18]

Ilhan Omar: allegations and later correction

Separate from the two 2019 apology episodes described above, President Trump claimed in 2019 that Omar had expressed love for al-Qaeda. Omar’s documented 2012 and 2019 remarks, Her pofessors who she loved sholders went up whenever he said Al Qaeda. In her apologies for her language she acknowledged what she said was harmful. [1–3, 19]

Additional allegations in circulation

In February 2026, Fox News reported on an ISGAP Action report alleging that Tlaib’s rhetoric, event appearances, campaign spending, and political associations showed ideological affinity with individuals or organizations it linked to terrorist networks. The report called for government inquiries. Fox’s account reported that their positions aligned with Brotherhood objectives. Tlaib’s office did not respond to Fox by publication. In October 2026, Wahab was accused during a debate by her opponent, Melissa Hernandez of having “communications with the Taliban.” [25]

Other names and limits

For André Carson, Lateefah Simon, and Aisha Wahab, the sources reviewed for this report show strong criticism of Israeli government policy and support for ceasefire or Palestinian-rights measures. A valid case can that substantiates allegation of concealed Islamist extremist beliefs. I have not included anonymous social-media claims or unsourced rumors.

Interpretation

Omar apologized for specific language while continuing to criticize Israeli policy. Tlaib’s public position on one state became clearer and, by her own account, remained firm; her slogan clarification was a defense, not a retraction. Hamawy’s association became a campaign issue, and competing interpretations remain. El-Sayed publicly revised his 2012 assessment of Obama in 2026 and apologized for comments after a synagogue attack, while maintaining his stated policy criticism of Israel. The chronology and election context may invite speculation about strategy, but the sources reviewed prove that electoral calculation caused these changes.

6.Staff, associates, travel, and political support

This review adds named staff and associates only where reliable public reporting or campaign-finance records identify a role, payment, or relationship. It distinguishes candidate-directed contributions, independent super-PAC spending, endorsements, and personal associations. A donor’s organizational role or a consultant’s past work is relevant. It can help establish that a candidate shares the person’s views or supports an extremist organization.

Rashida Tlaib and Rasha Mubarak. Federal filings reviewed by the Washington Examiner show that Tlaib’s campaign and leadership PAC paid more than $435,000 to consultant Rasha Mubarak’s firm, Unbought Power, since 2020, with the payments reported as fundraising consulting. She has been associated with the Holy Land Foundation which was convicted of funding Hamas and activists and supporters. In September 2024, Tlaib’s campaign manager said the campaign was no longer working with the firm. The Examiner separately alleged that Mubarak had worked with groups connected to Palestinian militant organizations. The same story documents Mubarak’s political advocacy and arrest at a protest. [26]

Abdul El-Sayed’s donor network and family connections. Claims raised by Republican Mike Rogers reported that El-Sayed’s father-in-law, Jukaku Tayeb who is and has been associated with numerous Islamic organization. Including the convicted Holy Land foundation. He gavegave $200,000 to Fighting for Michigan PAC, an independent-expenditure-only super PAC supporting El-Sayed; the PAC said it was run by political strategists, and the law bars it from contributing directly to or coordinating spending with the campaign. PolitiFact also summarized Fox News’s finding of more than $115,000 in campaign contributions from at least 41 individuals who work or have worked for CAIR or held leadership roles there. Those were individual contributions, not a CAIR organizational contribution. CAIR denied the terrorism allegations to Fox; PolitiFact notes the organization disputes the characterization.The wider allegations about other named donors—including people said to have Muslim Brotherhood connections or to have praised Hamas or Hezbollah. The sources reviewed did verify indirect campaign funding by the Muslim Brotherhood or PLO. [27–30]

Adam Hamawy’s campaign support. The campaign’s endorsement page lists CAIR Action, Our Revolution, U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights Action, and other organizations. New Jersey Monitor reported that American Priorities, a super PAC, spent more than $1.5 million independently in support of Hamawy; that is outside spending, not money given to his campaign. Hamawy’s relationship with Omar Abdel Rahman is covered above. The reviewed sources did not establish that Abdel Rahman or the PLO funded Hamawy’s campaign. [31–32]

Travel and foreign-government contact. Public reporting documents Ilhan Omar’s 2022 trip to Pakistan, including a visit to Pakistan-administered Kashmir and meetings with political leaders; her 2022 Qatar trip to the FIFA World Cup was partly funded by Qatar’s government according to financial-disclosure reporting. Omar said she raised human-rights and forced-labor concerns in Qatar. Tlaib’s proposed 2019 visit to the West Bank and Israel was restricted by the Israeli government; she later declined a conditional family visit. Hamawy’s trips to Gaza described in his biography and reporting were medical missions.

 

7. What current polling and forecasts show

Indicator

Latest reported reading

How to read it

Generic House ballot

A September 2026 New York Times/Siena poll reported 51% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans among likely voters. A national polling average cited October 13 put Democrats ahead 49.7% to 41.1%.

National preference, not a seat-by-seat poll; it does not translate directly into a specific number of seats.

House control forecast

Decision Desk HQ (Oct. 14): Democrats 77% chance to win control, with 235 seats projected. Cook Political Report’s House outlook, reported Oct. 15: possible Democratic net gain of 9–19 seats.

Both point toward Democratic control, but models use different assumptions and remain uncertain.

Senate control forecast

Decision Desk HQ (Oct. 14): Democrats 56% chance to win control, with 51 seats projected.

Close to an even contest. This estimates party control, not El-Sayed’s personal chance of winning Michigan.

What this means for Muslim representation. If all six reported Muslim House candidates win, the next Congress would have six Muslim members of the House—one more than the five serving now. El-Sayed’s Senate race is separate. The broad national forecast is favorable to Democrats, but it does not guarantee any candidate’s victory.

7.Bernie Sanders endorsements

Sanders’s official 2026 endorsement page lists three of the seven candidates discussed: Aisha Wahab and Adam Hamawy for the House, and Abdul El-Sayed for the Senate. Sanders did endorse Omar for re-election in 2020; that older endorsement is not a 2026 endorsement.

Candidate

Sanders endorsement status

Rashida Tlaib

No 2026 endorsement found

Ilhan Omar

Endorsed in 2020; not listed for 2026

André Carson

No 2026 endorsement found

Lateefah Simon

No 2026 endorsement found

Aisha Wahab

Yes — listed for 2026

Adam Hamawy

Yes — listed for 2026

Abdul El-Sayed

Yes — listed for 2026

A missing name on a campaign endorsement page is not proof Sanders opposes that candidate;

8.Sources

• Current members and reported Muslim candidate slate — The New Arab, Oct. 14, 2026 — https://www.newarab.com/news/muslim-american-candidates-make-inroads-local-races-across-us

• Aisha Wahab wins special election; November rematch — Associated Press — https://apnews.com/article/17e1183d99f385000ea95e73d7670de6

• Muslim candidates, including Adam Hamawy and Abdul El-Sayed — Muslim Network TV — https://www.muslimnetwork.tv/a-record-muslim-slate-advances-toward-the-us-midterms/

• 2026 midterm forecast, updated Oct. 14 — Decision Desk HQ — https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026

• House outlook and estimated seat gains, Oct. 15 — The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/midterm-anxiety-mounts-for-gop-as-democrats-try-to-expand-battleground-04c31f0b

• Generic ballot polling summary, Oct. 13 — Forbes — https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/13/hottest-2026-midterm-races-democrat-roy-cooper-has-double-digit-lead-over-former-rnc-chair-michael-whatley-updated-daily/

• September NYT/Siena likely-voter poll as reported by Forbes — Forbes, Sept. 15 reference in article above — https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/13/hottest-2026-midterm-races-democrat-roy-cooper-has-double-digit-lead-over-former-rnc-chair-michael-whatley-updated-daily/

• Limits on a projected Democratic midterm wave — Reuters, Oct. 12, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/world/us/six-reasons-democrats-may-fall-short-midterm-landslide-november-2026-10-12/

• Bernie Sanders’s official 2026 endorsement list — https://berniesanders.com/endorse/

• Bernie Sanders endorses Ilhan Omar for re-election, July 16, 2020 — Omar campaign — https://ilhanomar.com/news/icymi-senator-sanders-endorses-ilhan-omar/

• Sanders endorsement confirmation — Adam Hamawy campaign — https://hamawyfornj.com/endorsements

• Sanders endorsement confirmation — Abdul El-Sayed campaign — https://abdulforsenate.com/endorsements/

• Official House biography of Rashida Tlaib — https://tlaib.house.gov/about

• Official House biography of Ilhan Omar — https://omar.house.gov/about

• Ilhan Omar’s statement on Israel, Palestine, antisemitism and her past remarks — https://ilhanomar.com/my-record/

• AP on Omar’s refugee background and naturalized citizenship — https://apnews.com/article/feb4e90a171eb830479dc42d62c6153e

• Official House biography of André Carson — https://carson.house.gov/about/biography

• Carson on Israel and Palestine — https://carson.house.gov/congressman-carson-stance-war-israel-and-palestine

• House history of Lateefah Simon — https://history.house.gov/People/Listing/S/SIMON%2C-Lateefah-%28S001231%29/

• Simon on the Block the Bombs Act — https://simon.house.gov/media/press-releases/icymi-congresswoman-simon-calls-end-genocide-gaza-and-passage-block-bombs-act

• House history of Aisha Wahab and birthplace — https://history.house.gov/People/Detail/36507230766

• Congressional Record welcoming Wahab as daughter of Afghan refugees — https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-09-02/pdf/CREC-2026-09-02-pt1-PgH5440-5.pdf

• Wahab campaign foreign-policy platform — https://aishaforcongress.com/priorities/

• Hamawy campaign biography — https://hamawyfornj.com/about

• Hamawy campaign foreign-policy platform — https://hamawyfornj.com/priorities

• New Jersey Monitor on Hamawy’s 1995 testimony and campaign response — https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/27/adam-hamawy-blind-sheikh-12th-district-primary/

• JTA on Hamawy’s Israel views and condemnation of antisemitism — https://www.jta.org/2026/05/29/politics/nj-12-candidate-adam-hamawy-decries-antisemitism-amid-scrutiny-of-his-israel-views

• El-Sayed campaign biography — https://abdulforsenate.com/about/

• AP on El-Sayed’s Israel policy and remarks after Temple Israel attack — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/24/elsayed-michigan-senate-hasan-piker-isreal-antisemitism/e2009b62-a004-11f1-8606-1d40ad00172e_story/

9.Additional sources for the deeper review

Polling and forecast figures are snapshots as of the dates shown.

[1] Ilhan Omar’s 2019 apology and political backlash — The Guardian, Feb. 11, 2019 — https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/11/ilhan-omar-antisemitic-tweets-house-democrats-apology

[2] Omar says 2012 “hypnotized” tweet was offensive and unfortunate — Jewish Telegraphic Agency — https://www.jta.org/quick-reads/ilhan-omar-says-her-2012-tweet-about-israel-hypnotizing-the-world-was-offensive-and-unfortunate

[3] House Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin welcomes Omar’s unequivocal apology — official statement, Feb. 11, 2019 — https://raskin.house.gov/2019/2/raskin-statement-rep-omar-s-comments

[4] Tlaib defends her interpretation of “from the river to the sea” — Associated Press, Nov. 6, 2023 — https://apnews.com/article/rashida-tlaib-criticism-palestine-war-michigan-israel-b6c2b4ca091c54d580b97fd01056ecf6

[5] Official House Clerk: final vote on Tlaib censure, Roll Call 622, Nov. 7, 2023 — https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2023/roll622

[6] AP report on House censure vote and Tlaib’s response — Nov. 7, 2023 — https://apnews.com/article/8085189047a4c40f2d44ada4604aa076

[7] Adam Hamawy / Abdel Rahman trial testimony — New Jersey Monitor, May 27, 2026 — https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/27/adam-hamawy-blind-sheikh-12th-district-primary/

[8] Hamawy condemns antisemitism and explains his testimony — Jewish Telegraphic Agency, May 29, 2026 — https://www.jta.org/2026/05/29/politics/nj-12-candidate-adam-hamawy-decries-antisemitism-amid-scrutiny-of-his-israel-views

[9] Former trial judge’s account of Hamawy testimony — Wall Street Journal opinion, May 7, 2026 — https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-blind-sheikh-and-the-candidate-0a37e742

[10] El-Sayed apologizes for remarks about Temple Israel attack — The Washington Post, Aug. 29, 2026 — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/29/el-sayed-apologizes-march-comments-about-michigan-synagogue-attack/

[11] El-Sayed’s statement after the Temple Israel attack — campaign statement, Mar. 12, 2026 — https://abdulforsenate.com/2026/03/abdul-el-sayed-statement-on-west-bloomfield-synagogue-attack/

[12] J Street statement withdrawing its endorsement of Tlaib — Aug. 17, 2018 — https://jstreet.org/press-releases/j-street-will-not-endorse-candidates-who-do-not-endorse-a-two-state-solution/

[13] JTA on Tlaib’s one-state position and withdrawal of endorsement — Aug. 17, 2018 — https://www.jta.org/2018/08/17/politics/j-street-withdraws-endorsement-rashida-tlaib-palestinian-american-candidate-supports-one-state-solution

[14] Washington Post profile of Tlaib’s continuing one-state position — May 20, 2021 — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/eight-minutes-with-the-president-rep-rashida-tlaib-the-lone-palestinian-american-in-congress-gains-relevance-in-israel-debate/2021/05/20/fe3139c6-b8c5-11eb-bb84-6b92dedcd8ed_story.html

[15] Guardian live report: claims about El-Sayed and his family, his response, and Trump’s false claim — Oct. 14, 2026 — https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/oct/14/donald-trump-us-midterms-arizona-montana-politics-latest-news-updates

[16] Associated Press on campaign attacks and unfounded terrorist-tie allegations — Sept. 2026 — https://apnews.com/article/d29ea1d7fa2f782e3de9039f9094104f

[17] El-Sayed walks back 2012 criticism of Obama — Washington Post, Oct. 11, 2026 — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/11/abdul-el-sayed-walks-back-obama-criticism-ahead-their-campaign-event/

[18] Hamawy spokesperson’s response and account of association — Jewish Telegraphic Agency, May 29, 2026 — https://www.jta.org/2026/05/29/politics/nj-12-candidate-adam-hamawy-decries-antisemitism-amid-scrutiny-of-his-israel-views

[19] FactCheck.org: Trump’s false claims about Ilhan Omar — July 16, 2019 — https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/trumps-false-claims-about-rep-ilhan-omar/

[20] Carson on Israel and Palestine, including Hamas condemnation and ceasefire work — official congressional page — https://carson.house.gov/congressman-carson-stance-war-israel-and-palestine

[21] Wahab-authored SCR 105 text, including civilian protections, hostages, and terrorism — 2025 — https://legiscan.com/CA/text/SCR105/2025

[22] Simon calls for passage of the Block the Bombs Act — official congressional statement, Sept. 11, 2025 — https://simon.house.gov/media/press-releases/icymi-congresswoman-simon-calls-end-genocide-gaza-and-passage-block-bombs-act

[23] Fox News report on an ISGAP Action report alleging extremist-network links — Feb. 5, 2026 — https://www.foxnews.com/politics/watchdog-releases-scathing-report-on-tlaibs-alleged-ties-to-terrorist-groups-warning-of-potential-risks

[24] AP fact-check: Tlaib’s keffiyeh is not a Hamas symbol — Dec. 18, 2019 — https://apnews.com/article/archive-fact-checking-8335620018

[25] San Francisco Chronicle on the 2026 Taliban accusation and clarification — Oct. 13, 2026 — https://www.sfchronicle.com/eastbay/article/melissa-hernandez-aisha-wahab-taliban-22475516.php

[26] Tlaib campaign ends work with Rasha Mubarak’s firm; payments and allegations — Washington Examiner, Sept. 13, 2024 — https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/3152101/rashida-tlaib-parts-ways-anti-israel-consultant-terrorism-linked-groups/

[27] PolitiFact review of El-Sayed campaign-finance allegations and super-PAC rules — Oct. 8, 2026 — https://politifact.com/article/2026/oct/08/michigan-senate-debate-fact-check-el-sayed-rogers/

[28] Fox News report on individual contributions from people associated with CAIR and CAIR’s response — Aug. 5, 2026 — https://www.foxnews.com/politics/el-sayed-campaign-backed-100000-dozens-members-group-alleged-terror-ties

[29] PolitiFact on Jukaku Tayeb’s super-PAC contributions, PAC operations, and independent-expenditure rules — July 8, 2026 — https://politifact.com/article/2026/jul/08/michigan-debate-el-sayed-stevens-campaign-finance/

[30] Federal Election Commission guidance on foreign-national contributions — https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/foreign-nationals/

[31] Hamawy campaign endorsements — https://hamawyfornj.com/endorsements

[32] New Jersey Monitor on independent super-PAC support for Hamawy — May 22, 2026 — https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/22/adam-hamawy-fundraising/

[33] Ilhan Omar’s record and account of Qatar human-rights discussions — https://ilhanomar.com/my-record/

[34] Associated Press on Omar’s Pakistan trip and meetings — Apr. 20, 2022 — https://apnews.com/article/business-religion-pakistan-islamabad-ilhan-omar-1c1a6da12e8eb9e3cd49ee402b7c1e59

[35] Reuters on Omar’s visit to Pakistan-administered Kashmir — Apr. 21, 2022 — https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-congresswoman-visits-pakistani-part-disputed-kashmir-draws-indias-ire-2022-04-21/

[36] Tlaib statement on travel to Palestine/Israel — Aug. 2019 — https://tlaib.house.gov/posts/congresswoman-tlaibs-statement-on-travel-to-palestine-israel

[37] Star Tribune on Qatar-government funding for Omar’s 2022 World Cup trip — Sept. 2023 — https://www.startribune.com/financial-disclosure-shows-ilhan-omar-trip-to-world-cup-funded-by-qatar-government/600298940

 

Special Reports

TRUMP TO BLAST OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

October 16, 2026

TWO AMIGOS, TWO DESPERADOS Facing Close elections

• NICK GUARINO • OCTOBER 16, 2026

1.THE STRAIT IS THE STORY

The most consequential stretch of water in the world may soon become the stage for the most consequential political gamble since D Day. My prediction is simple: Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu may seek to break the military stalemate with an overwhelming demonstration of force against Iran—and then announce that the Strait of Hormuz is open for business.

Think about the stakes. Tankers, refineries, diesel, shipping insurance, consumer prices, inflation and the ballot box are all connected. Oil is not merely another commodity. It is the lifeblood of the global industrial economy. Restrict that flow and the pressure spreads from the pump to the supermarket, the factory and the voting booth.

One bomb will not physically opens the shipping lane. But a sufficiently dramatic military campaign hitting multiple targets would convince Iran already weakened and desperate that it can no longer threaten passage—and convince the world that the danger premium on oil should collapse.

2.TWO AMIGOS, TWO DESPERADOS

Two leaders. Two political calendars. One war that refuses to leave the headlines. In my reading of events, Trump and Netanyahu have every incentive to seek a dramatic change in the story before voters make their decisions. They are doing so badly in poleing they have nothing to lose.

Trump understands spectacle as well as any political figure of the television social media age. He knows the power of a single image that overwhelms a week of debate. Netanyahu understands the same imperative: when the national conversation is consumed by war and insecurity, a dramatic military result can reorder political expectations.

They need something bog right before the election which in Isreal and Areiaca are a week apart. They have made a secret agreement. A joint shock and Awh attack right before the elections. But political incentives are real, and history repeatedly shows that leaders under pressure search for decisive moments.

3.THE MOTHER OF ALL BOMBS

The reported American planning includes the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast weapon, better known as the Mother of All Bombs. The biggest no nuclaer bomb in the world. At roughly 21,600 pounds overall, with approximately 18,700 pounds of explosive filling, it is a weapon designed for immense blast effects. It is GPS-guided it is so big no bomber in the world can carry it. The only way to deliver it is from a specially configured MC-130 transport aircraft.

That delivery system matters. A large, relatively slow transport aircraft is not a stealth bomber. The prospect of using it against a defended country implies an extensive supporting air operation. And info from our sources suggest that numerous GBU-43 bombs will be used against key targets deep inside Iran. The visible bombing would be the headline; the wider air campaign would be the machinery behind it.

And that is where Israel comes in. The IDF air force is the best in the world. Never defeated and constantly rewriting the book on air power is a devastating force to recon with. By the time they get done with a enemy they have lost all their air defenses, radars. leaders and command and control structure. Its back to notes delivered by donkey.

There is also an essential technical distinction. MOAB is an air-blast weapon, not a deep-penetrating bunker buster. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is a different weapon designed for hardened underground targets. Confusing the two would confuse the strategic argument.

4.PICKAXE MOUNTAIN AND MORE THE POLITICS OF SHOCK

Pickaxe Mountain, near Natanz, is reported to contain deeply protected underground infrastructure. Its depth and construction make it a formidable challenge for any surface-blast weapon. Whether MOAB could destroy what lies beneath is an open technical question.

But here is the argument at the center of this editorial: the military objective and the political objective need not be identical. A devastating visible strike could be intended to shake Iran’s command structure, intimidate its leadership and create a global perception that Washington has regained the initiative—even if the underground damage remains uncertain.

In my forecast, the opening strike would be followed by further pressure against military capabilities, with Iran attempting retaliation and Israel and the United States trying to contain it.

Pickax Mountain is not the only military objective. A broader American military campaign could go far beyond Iran’s underground nuclear sites.

Pickaxe Mountain is not the only military objective. Washington and Jerusalem are looking at something far more consequential than a strike on underground nuclear sites. We mentioned earlier Shock and Awy and Trump means it. Consider the target list. In central Iran are the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Pickaxe Mountain, Fordow near Qom, and Isfahan. In the southwest are the petroleum heartlands like Ahvaz and Marun, and Gachsaran. On the Gulf sits Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude oil export hub, and Bandar Abbas is a key port on the Strait of Hormuz. Looming over all of this is the IRGC with its aerospace forces, naval units, missiles, drones, and weapons stockpiles underground. This forecast envisions a much wider confrontation aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to fight, not just a single site.

5.THE FIRESTORM AND THE GAMBLE

There is nothing tidy about the war I am predicting. Iran has missiles, drones and regional reach. Israel and the United States possess formidable air power and defensive systems. A renewed exchange could become an extraordinary display of modern warfare, with consequences stretching across the Gulf.

My expectation is that the White House would seek not merely to hit targets, but to dominate the narrative: Iranian launches intercepted, Iranian military assets damaged, American forces presented as in command of the skies, and commercial shipping invited back through Hormuz.

The risk is obvious even within this bullish scenario. Iran could retaliate against regional states and energy infrastructure; a dramatic strike could widen the conflict instead of ending it. That risk does not weaken the prediction that the leaders might take the gamble. It helps explain how enormous the gamble would be.

6.FROM SHOCK AND AWE TO THE PRICE OF OIL

Imagine the announcement: the United States declares that Iran’s ability to interfere with shipping has been neutralized, that the Strait of Hormuz is again open to commercial traffic, and that the energy supply shock is coming to an end.

The political payoff would be immediate if markets believed it. Falling oil and diesel prices could ease inflation expectations and give Trump a compelling message for voters: the war is being brought under control, commerce is moving, and relief is coming.

But a presidential declaration alone does not move a tanker safely through a dangerous waterway. Insurers, shipowners and crews would have to believe the threat had truly receded. In this story, that is the test of whether the spectacle becomes a lasting victory.

7.THE OCTOBER SURPRISE

The calendar is impossible to ignore. America’s November 3 midterms are approaching. Israel’s elections are a week earlier. My forecast is that the pressure to produce a decisive headline will intensify as election day draws nearer.

This is why I call them two amigos, two desperados. I see two leaders with powerful incentives to change the course of the conflict and the course of public opinion in a single thunderous stroke.

Will the Mother of All Bombs be part of that stroke? The public reporting establishes that it has been discussed as a contingency , planning and positioning of war material is ongoing. It is obvious that Israel and America are preparing for war. Shit they even published pictures of the biggest conventional bomb ever built. My prediction is that the temptation to use overwhelming force—and then declare the Strait open—may prove irresistible.

If that happens, the next great battle will not be fought only in the skies over Iran. It will be fought in the oil market, in the headlines, and at the ballot box. That is how Trump could try to blast open the Strait of Hormuz. And save the elections.

8.SOURCE NOTES

CNN reporting dated October 15, 2026, as supplied in the background material: reported U.S. MOAB contingency planning for Iran.

Bloomberg and Jerusalem Post reports supplied by the author: Trump’s Newsmax remarks and discussion of Pickaxe Mountain.

Defence Security Asia background supplied by the author: MOAB specifications, MC-130 delivery, blast-versus-penetration distinction, and uncertainty concerning underground targets.

Breaking News

Netanyahu said to have spoken with Rubio about Iran

October 15, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday about the situation regarding Iran, Israeli Channel 12 reported. Israeli security officials were quoted as saying that “action” against Iran is a “realistic scenario” if Tehran “doesn’t come to its senses.” In addition, Western countries allegedly detected that Iran is taking “new and extreme military steps and might be preparing a preemptive attack.” This week, there have been repeated rumors that United States President Donald Trump and Netanyahu discussed the resumption of hostilities against Iran. Netanyahu, however, later told the media that another attack against that country would not be “convenient” at this time.

Breaking News

Trump to drop its largest non-nuclear bomb on Iran

October 15, 2026

Trump feels the heat with election right around the corner.  At the Commander in Chief’s request, the United States military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities, CNN reported, citing multiple US officials familiar with the discussions. The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb, known as the “Mother of All Bombs,” could be deployed before or after the midterm elections if President Donald Trump authorizes renewed military operations, according to the report. The proposed targets reportedly include Iran’s heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site.

NN: election surprise anyone?

Market News and Commentary

Silver sinks 5% as woes about Fed policy grow

October 14, 2026

The price of white metal tumbled as much as 5% on Wednesday as a hotter-than-expected inflation report dimmed investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and raised prospects for an October rate hike. The annual consumer inflation jumped to 3.7% last month, with the rising costs of fuel and oil driving the increase. Silver plunged 5.19% to sell at $56.11 per ounce at 11:17 am ET. The price of gold declined 1.75% to $4,088.23 per ounce, palladium dropped 2.22% to $1,089.51 per ounce, and platinum fell 3.44% to $1,611.21 per ounce.

NN: I have been clear here: I have a standing reco to sell gold and silver. Silver that was at $121 is now Under $55 on its way to $10. Gold that soared to $5,600 is now trying to hold above $4,000. I see gold dropping to under $1,000. In a deflation precious metals get killed.

Market News and Commentary

A FRIEND IN NEED IS A FRIEND INDEED

October 14, 2026

  •  

    Netanyahu, Trump said to discuss renewed war on Iran. Both face hotly contested elections. And both are in trouble from the liberal commie assault on our freedoms and way of life. Pacifists will get you killed. Sorry but it’s an ugly cruel war out there and you got to have armies and fight wars to survive. Something the lefty commie fagots, programmed by our enemies, refuse to even consider. It’s desperate times and the Islamic barbarians are in a global uprising. Led by the mother of terrorists Iran. That is why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the possibility of renewed military action against Iran with US President Donald Trump last week. Netanyahu is seeking to resume strikes on Iran before the elections, Netanyahu warned that security threats to Israel are increasing ahead of the elections, adding that Israel is preparing for “any scenario.” And the US is bogged down in a stalemate with Iran over oil shipments from the Strait. The resulting high prices for oil have become a major election issue in the US. A successful lightning attack on Iran coordinated with Israel that opens the Strait before the election would be a game changer. Sources indicate that there is a lot of pressure for a coordinated attack on Iran. By the US Israel and get this the Saudis. It could come as soon as next week. 

 

Market News and Commentary

Up In Smoke

October 13, 2026

 

uo in smoke.webp

 

 

 

 

Breaking News

S. Arabia confirms 12 killed in Riyadh airport strike…. Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Raise Risk of Wider War

October 12, 2026

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) confirmed that 12 people were killed and another 309 were injured in a Houthi strike on the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday. In addition to four Saudi nationals, two Bangladeshi nationals, and one American, Syrian, Egyptian, Jordanian, Palestinian, and Sudanese citizens lost their lives in the attack. The injured individuals are receiving medical assistance, GACA added. In addition, the authorities are still assessing the extent of damage inflicted during the attack. Significantly, it marks the first mass casualty event in Saudi Arabia since the resumption of full-scale hostilities with the Yemeni Houthis, amid region-wide tensions in the Middle East following the outbreak of the war in Iran.

Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Raise Risk of Wider War

This weekend’s deadly attacks on Riyadh’s main airport have demonstrated the ability of Yemen’s Houthis to strike at the heart of Saudi power, raising the risk of a dangerous escalation that could draw in the US. Saturday’s strike killed 12 people and wounded 309, while on Sunday the airport was hit again, this time by an unknown projectile, the fourth attack in a week. Saudi fighter jets are already backing a counteroffensive by Yemeni government forces after the Houthis seized territory near Bab el-Mandeb, a critical chokepoint for global shipping at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The Houthis had largely stayed on the sidelines after the US-Israeli war against Iran began in February. But the latest offensive illustrates how the group — a member of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance — has developed into its own autonomous fighting force, with its own sophisticated weapons supply chain and an ability to operate and escalate as they see fit, at times in coordination with the Islamic Republic. The attacks put de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman under mounting pressure to escalate a war the country has spent years trying to escape, against an opponent that’s arguably more capable than it’s ever been. They also present difficult choices for the US and the kingdom’s new defense partners, Turkey and Pakistan, over how far to go in helping Saudi Arabia respond. “By escalating their attacks, they are trying to pressure Saudi Arabia into stepping back and halting its air campaign,” said Ahmed Nagi, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Yemen. “Riyadh sees these strikes as a serious escalation, particularly given their unprecedented nature, and is likely to respond with greater military pressure.”   For Saudi Arabia, the Houthis’ success comes at a challenging time. The kingdom is set to host a series of events aimed at pitching itself as one of the world’s most lucrative investment plays. That includes its flagship Future Investment Initiative, often dubbed Davos in the Desert, which draws Wall Street titans from Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon to BlackRock’s Larry Fink. Executives at top oil firms including BP and Shell pulled out of the World Petroleum Congress scheduled to start on Sunday, in a sign of how the attacks are already disrupting business in Riyadh.

NN: Who blinks first loses. The Saudis, instead of building pleasure palaces in the sky and ski resorts in the 120 degree desert, should concentrate on wiping out the world’s greatest terrorist nation, Iran. Trump would not be in the shit now if he did not T A C O out 14 times. It’s time to grow a hairy set of balls and end Iran by hook, crook or nuke

Breaking News

BREAD, CIRCUSES, AND DIESEL FUEL

October 11, 2026

SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ELECTIONS

 

gladiaters 1.jpg

 

THE GREAT ELECTION-YEAR DIESEL FUEL SHOW AND $5000 CHECKS

An opinion editorial by Nick Guarino | October 11, 2026

1. THE ROMAN FORMULA RETURNS

Two thousand years ago, Roman rulers learned that a restless public could be distracted with free bread and sporting events they fought in the great colosseums they called Circus Maximus. Today, the free bread is a $5000 check and promises of cheaper diesel. And we now have great Stadiums, billion dollar sports like the NFL, NBA, Formula 1 racing and cage fighting. The only difference we don’t use up the athletes as fast as the Romans did. For the most part they do not fight to the death. It’s a slower demise nowadays as their joints blow out and their brains are fried.

Rome had its great wars with conquering generals like Julius Caesar parading the spoils of war and slaves they captured marching through the streets of Rome.

Today we have great generals like Storming Norman, flyovers with jet planes and military parades, fireworks and all. And the spoils of war like oil.

Add the geopolitical spectacle featuring Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, millions of tons of fuel, and an election clock ticking toward November and you can see things have not changed much since the Roman times.

This is not an argument that sporting events do not matter, foreign wars do not count, diesel prices do not matter and people don’t want happy checks. They matter enormously.

It is an argument that political theater must never be confused with a war we don’t have the balls to fight to a decisive end. And a building energy crisis as emergency supplies run out. And out of control government giveaways that will end up in a debt collapse and great depression.

You cannot drive a truck on a press release, harvest a field with a headline, or fill a storage tank with applause.

2. THE PROMISE: FOUR POINT EIGHT MILLION METRIC TONS

On October 9, President Trump announced that Russia would release more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel immediately, another 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons thereafter, and a further 3 million tons subject to refinery conditions. That is roughly 4.8 million metric tons in total promise, according to Reuters and the Associated Press. This is a stated commitment, not evidence that the shipments have arrived. In fact with the constant bombing of Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones Russia cannot supply its domestic fuel needs never mind supplying Trump’s election fuel demands.

As Usual The Devil Is In The Details

Using a conversion figure of 7.5 barrels per metric ton, the first 300,000 tons to be supplied by the end of October equal approximately 2.25 million barrels of diesel fuel, or 94.5 million U.S. gallons.

The next Russian promised release for November 1.8 million tons amounts to about 13.5 million barrels.

All together Russia promises to release 4.8 million tons in the next 3 months. It would be about 36 million barrels, or 1.5 billion gallons. Actual conversion varies with diesel density.

Numbers that seem large are politically intoxicating but are a cruel political joke. The volume and the announced timing are a magician’s trick.

The 36 million barrels are smaller than ten days of total U.S. distillate consumption, based on EIA transportation consumption and its share of the total. UNHOOK MY DICK…. This is a joke…. it’s the equivalent of pissing in the ocean. It’s nothing. Another political trick to fool the fools.

3. WHERE IS THE FUEL COMING FROM?

The essential questions are physical, not rhetorical. Which Russian refineries will produce these cargoes? What capacity is operating after repeated Ukrainian strikes? How much product is already in storage? Which tankers will carry it, which buyers will receive it, and when?

Reports describe refinery damage and Russia’s own export restrictions. Those facts justify skepticism. The sad fact is Russia is incapable of producing, refining or shipping the promised barrels. Some barrels may come from inventories or be diverted from existing customers. But diverted supply is not necessarily new supply. Moving a barrel from one buyer to another may reshuffle shortages rather than cure them.

This is the missing distinction in the grand announcement: an increase in global availability is not the same as a new increase in global production.

4. THE RED-DIESEL ACT: A TAX BREAK IS NOT A REFINERY

The administration has also promoted broader use of red-dyed diesel, normally reserved for qualifying off-road uses and exempt from the federal highway diesel excise tax. A reported executive-order initiative would permit wider on-road use, potentially saving 24 cents per gallon in federal tax for some purchasers.

That may be genuine financial relief for eligible motorists if implemented lawfully and effectively. But it cannot add one gallon to refinery output. Off-road users already enjoying the exemption would not receive a new 24-cent benefit. And tax policy has legal and administrative limits; an announcement does not by itself settle them.

One act promises more fuel. The other promises cheaper tax treatment. They are different policies, and neither should be sold as any kind of real solution to a global supply crunch.

5. THE POLITICAL PRICE TAG

The timing is impossible to ignore. Diesel prices have become an acute political problem ahead of the midterms. Farmers, truckers, contractors, and families face the knock-on effects of higher transport and production costs. Trump has explicitly invoked relief for farmers, ranchers, and truckers.

My editorial judgment is that the administration is staging an election-year rescue show. Supporters can reasonably argue that any supply relief and tax savings are worth pursuing. Critics can reasonably ask why Washington is relaxing pressure on Moscow while Russia continues its war in Ukraine. Both claims deserve to be confronted with the same test: measurable deliveries, measurable prices, and measurable consequences.

The United States cannot simultaneously pretend that energy sanctions are costless and that reversing them has no geopolitical price. Ukraine and European allies have objected to the easing of pressure on Russia. Their concern is not theatrical: fuel revenues can strengthen Moscow’s finances.

6. THE TEST: SHOW US THE BARRELS

Forget the triumphant announcements for a moment. Show us the refinery runs. Show us the cargo manifests. Show us the delivery dates. Show us whether inventories rise in the markets that actually need diesel. Show us whether retail prices fall for more than a headline-driven trading session.

If Russian fuel arrives, it may ease localized pressure a little. If tax changes reduce bills, some drivers may benefit even less. But those possibilities are not permission to claim the crisis is solved. The hard work is refining, shipping, distributing, and paying for the fuel—not announcing it.

Rome had its bread and circuses. America now has diesel and declarations. The public should demand more than a performance.

Because a promise is not a barrel. A barrel is not a refinery. And an election is not an energy policy.

Nick Guarino

I am disappointed in Trump who I support. This is a cheap political stunt. Nothing more! It’s an act of desperation!

7. SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Reuters, October 9, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-russia-immediately-supply-300000-tons-diesel-fuel-2026-10-09/
Associated Press, October 9–10, 2026: https://apnews.com/article/12baccc7aade559bf329079b0548c9da
Bloomberg News, October 9, 2026: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/trump-says-putin-to-supply-us-with-diesel-ahead-of-midterms-3
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Use of Diesel: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/diesel-fuel/use-of-diesel.php
U.S. EIA, Energy Units and Calculators: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/index.php

Conversions use approximately 7.5 barrels per metric ton and 42 U.S. gallons per barrel. They are estimates, not verified delivered volumes. Reported red-diesel executive-order details come from the Bloomberg article supplied by the author. Commentary is labeled as opinion; future delivery and political motives remain uncertain.

 

Breaking News

Iran to ‘punish’ ships that cooperate with US….. UK reports vessel struck off UAE coast…. Zelensky: Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries

October 9, 2026

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Friday that vessels owned by companies that “cooperate” with the United States will be “punished,” including through sanctions. It stressed that the measure could include “routes it considers unauthorized,” extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran International. The IRGC added that it targeted a liquefied petroleum gas carrier south of Hormuz for using an “illegal” route. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported a vessel was hit off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, although it is unclear whether it is the same incident.

UK reports vessel struck off UAE coast

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Friday that it received reports from multiple sources about a vessel being hit in the Strait of Hormuz, 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazirah Al Hamra in the United Arab Emirates. The ship was reportedly hit by an unidentified projectile, which started a fire. The fire has since been extinguished, but there is currently no information on potential casualties, damage and environmental impact.

Zelensky: Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in a social media post on Friday that his country’s armed forces struck two Russian oil refineries, one in Omsk and another in Ukhta, 1,900 kilometers from Ukraine’s state border. “The target in Ukhta was hit by An-196 RS drones, which can fly about 2,500 kilometers, while FP-6 drones (modified FP-1s) were used against the Omsk refinery the day before,” Zelensky wrote on X.

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