This is all about our oil trade and Iran’s final days
Benjamin Netanyahu was supposed to be on his way out. Instead, Israel’s October 27 election has left him in office, with his Likud party still the largest in the Knesset and his right-wing bloc well ahead of its principal rival. The headline is not that Netanyahu has already secured a new coalition government. He will soon. The headline is that his opponents expected a decisive repudiation and did not get one.That though Bebe would be out!
With roughly 70% of ballots counted Wednesday morning, Bloomberg and Reuters reported projections of 54 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 47 for Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc and 19 for Arab parties. Sixty-one seats are required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Those numbers can still change as special ballots are counted. But they already tell a story: Netanyahu remains Israel’s dominant and ultimate political survivor.
Coalition arithmetic is not a technical footnote in Israeli politics; it is the game. No party has ever won an outright Knesset majority. The president consults parliamentary factions and selects the lawmaker judged most likely to assemble a coalition—not automatically the leader of the largest party. Netanyahu has a powerful negotiating position, and a successful coalition almost guaranteed. If talks fail, another election is possible which Bebe will win hands down. In the meantime, he remains caretaker prime minister.
As a footnote the remaining ballets to be counted are mostly Military and they usually are overwhelming supporters of Netanyahu. He could gain as many as 4 seats putting him within 3 seats of the coalition he needs. No one else comes even close. After a lot of blow and go by the lefty loser Bebe will remain prime minister of Israel. the only two world leaders that understand and are willing to stop the grave Iranian nuclear threat are still in a position to end them… Its a win!
Then there is Donald Trump I call him a friend in high places. Trump publicly endorsed Netanyahu twice and his endorsement helped the prime minister’s performance. Trump is appreciated and very popular among the most Israelis Netanyahu, for his part, used election night to emphasize their partnership and the prospect of confronting Iran together. The friendship is not subtle. It is the central political image of this election: two leaders who know they have unfinished business in Tehran.
Trump also understands political theater. Netanyahu speaks fluent English, is comfortable before American cameras and knows how to deliver a message in a form that plays well on television and social media. Eisenkot Bebe’s rival whose English sucks and he looks and dresses like a bus driver. Israel is a world class player and communicating is essential to survival. Eisenkot a former military chief, offers a very weak and public persona, has no international experience. That contrast matters and is understood by Trump, who prizes forceful communicators and recognizable personalities. Any claim that Washington is actively pressuring specific Israeli parties to join Netanyahu’s coalition are true.
The deeper message is being sent to Iran. You will not be allowed to have nukes. Tehran may have hoped that Israeli voters would remove Netanyahu or that the American midterms would constrain Trump. Neither outcome are true. Its little more then wishful thinking in Tehran who knows the regimes only chance of survival is to get nukes. Netanyahu has survived his latest political test; Trump remains in the White House and will be their for two more years. Plenty of time to finish off Iran. The two leaders are openly signaling that Iran remains at the center of their strategic agenda. Whether renewed strikes occur is a decision, not a certainty because its still up to Iran to decide. Tehran has taken reckless course and building its strategy on the expectation that political opponents of Bebe and Trump will make their problem disappear.
Special ballots from soldiers, hospitals and diplomatic posts remain to be counted. Such votes have always favored the right. I believe Netanyahu is guaranteed to gain two to five seats—and cannot lose any—go beyond the available tally. The stronger argument is simpler: the election has not delivered the defeat Bebe adversaries sought, and the final count may yet improve his bargaining position.
Here is my assessment: Bibi is back—soon with a completed coalition agreement, with momentum, incumbency and a powerful friend in Washington. Iran, in my view, has badly miscalculated. Tehran may have counted on an Israeli election that would remove Netanyahu and an American midterm election that would restrain Trump. The Israeli vote has not delivered the decisive change Iran might have hoped for, and the U.S. result remains unknown. But either way it goes on election day in America Trump survives. Whatever happens in Washington, the Iranian leadership cannot assume that the military pressure will disappear. Netanyahu remains prime minister while coalition negotiations proceed, and Trump has publicly spoken of finishing the confrontation. In my judgment, Iran is running out of room to gamble on political rescue. It pays to have friends in high places—and Bibi has one in the White House.
Sources and reporting notes
Reuters, October 28, 2026, report on Netanyahu and Eisenkot’s rival claims after the election (source text supplied for this editorial).
Bloomberg, October 28, 2026, election tally and coalition analysis (source text supplied for this editorial).
Editorial judgments about Trump’s media preferences, coalition prospects and Iran’s calculations are opinion, not verified election outcomes.