TWO AMIGOS, TWO DESPERADOS Facing Close elections
• NICK GUARINO • OCTOBER 16, 2026
1.THE STRAIT IS THE STORY
The most consequential stretch of water in the world may soon become the stage for the most consequential political gamble since D Day. My prediction is simple: Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu may seek to break the military stalemate with an overwhelming demonstration of force against Iran—and then announce that the Strait of Hormuz is open for business.
Think about the stakes. Tankers, refineries, diesel, shipping insurance, consumer prices, inflation and the ballot box are all connected. Oil is not merely another commodity. It is the lifeblood of the global industrial economy. Restrict that flow and the pressure spreads from the pump to the supermarket, the factory and the voting booth.
One bomb will not physically opens the shipping lane. But a sufficiently dramatic military campaign hitting multiple targets would convince Iran already weakened and desperate that it can no longer threaten passage—and convince the world that the danger premium on oil should collapse.
2.TWO AMIGOS, TWO DESPERADOS
Two leaders. Two political calendars. One war that refuses to leave the headlines. In my reading of events, Trump and Netanyahu have every incentive to seek a dramatic change in the story before voters make their decisions. They are doing so badly in poleing they have nothing to lose.
Trump understands spectacle as well as any political figure of the television social media age. He knows the power of a single image that overwhelms a week of debate. Netanyahu understands the same imperative: when the national conversation is consumed by war and insecurity, a dramatic military result can reorder political expectations.
They need something bog right before the election which in Isreal and Areiaca are a week apart. They have made a secret agreement. A joint shock and Awh attack right before the elections. But political incentives are real, and history repeatedly shows that leaders under pressure search for decisive moments.
3.THE MOTHER OF ALL BOMBS
The reported American planning includes the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast weapon, better known as the Mother of All Bombs. The biggest no nuclaer bomb in the world. At roughly 21,600 pounds overall, with approximately 18,700 pounds of explosive filling, it is a weapon designed for immense blast effects. It is GPS-guided it is so big no bomber in the world can carry it. The only way to deliver it is from a specially configured MC-130 transport aircraft.
That delivery system matters. A large, relatively slow transport aircraft is not a stealth bomber. The prospect of using it against a defended country implies an extensive supporting air operation. And info from our sources suggest that numerous GBU-43 bombs will be used against key targets deep inside Iran. The visible bombing would be the headline; the wider air campaign would be the machinery behind it.
And that is where Israel comes in. The IDF air force is the best in the world. Never defeated and constantly rewriting the book on air power is a devastating force to recon with. By the time they get done with a enemy they have lost all their air defenses, radars. leaders and command and control structure. Its back to notes delivered by donkey.
There is also an essential technical distinction. MOAB is an air-blast weapon, not a deep-penetrating bunker buster. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is a different weapon designed for hardened underground targets. Confusing the two would confuse the strategic argument.
4.PICKAXE MOUNTAIN AND MORE THE POLITICS OF SHOCK
Pickaxe Mountain, near Natanz, is reported to contain deeply protected underground infrastructure. Its depth and construction make it a formidable challenge for any surface-blast weapon. Whether MOAB could destroy what lies beneath is an open technical question.
But here is the argument at the center of this editorial: the military objective and the political objective need not be identical. A devastating visible strike could be intended to shake Iran’s command structure, intimidate its leadership and create a global perception that Washington has regained the initiative—even if the underground damage remains uncertain.
In my forecast, the opening strike would be followed by further pressure against military capabilities, with Iran attempting retaliation and Israel and the United States trying to contain it.
Pickax Mountain is not the only military objective. A broader American military campaign could go far beyond Iran’s underground nuclear sites.
Pickaxe Mountain is not the only military objective. Washington and Jerusalem are looking at something far more consequential than a strike on underground nuclear sites. We mentioned earlier Shock and Awy and Trump means it. Consider the target list. In central Iran are the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Pickaxe Mountain, Fordow near Qom, and Isfahan. In the southwest are the petroleum heartlands like Ahvaz and Marun, and Gachsaran. On the Gulf sits Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude oil export hub, and Bandar Abbas is a key port on the Strait of Hormuz. Looming over all of this is the IRGC with its aerospace forces, naval units, missiles, drones, and weapons stockpiles underground. This forecast envisions a much wider confrontation aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to fight, not just a single site.
5.THE FIRESTORM AND THE GAMBLE
There is nothing tidy about the war I am predicting. Iran has missiles, drones and regional reach. Israel and the United States possess formidable air power and defensive systems. A renewed exchange could become an extraordinary display of modern warfare, with consequences stretching across the Gulf.
My expectation is that the White House would seek not merely to hit targets, but to dominate the narrative: Iranian launches intercepted, Iranian military assets damaged, American forces presented as in command of the skies, and commercial shipping invited back through Hormuz.
The risk is obvious even within this bullish scenario. Iran could retaliate against regional states and energy infrastructure; a dramatic strike could widen the conflict instead of ending it. That risk does not weaken the prediction that the leaders might take the gamble. It helps explain how enormous the gamble would be.
6.FROM SHOCK AND AWE TO THE PRICE OF OIL
Imagine the announcement: the United States declares that Iran’s ability to interfere with shipping has been neutralized, that the Strait of Hormuz is again open to commercial traffic, and that the energy supply shock is coming to an end.
The political payoff would be immediate if markets believed it. Falling oil and diesel prices could ease inflation expectations and give Trump a compelling message for voters: the war is being brought under control, commerce is moving, and relief is coming.
But a presidential declaration alone does not move a tanker safely through a dangerous waterway. Insurers, shipowners and crews would have to believe the threat had truly receded. In this story, that is the test of whether the spectacle becomes a lasting victory.
7.THE OCTOBER SURPRISE
The calendar is impossible to ignore. America’s November 3 midterms are approaching. Israel’s elections are a week earlier. My forecast is that the pressure to produce a decisive headline will intensify as election day draws nearer.
This is why I call them two amigos, two desperados. I see two leaders with powerful incentives to change the course of the conflict and the course of public opinion in a single thunderous stroke.
Will the Mother of All Bombs be part of that stroke? The public reporting establishes that it has been discussed as a contingency , planning and positioning of war material is ongoing. It is obvious that Israel and America are preparing for war. Shit they even published pictures of the biggest conventional bomb ever built. My prediction is that the temptation to use overwhelming force—and then declare the Strait open—may prove irresistible.
If that happens, the next great battle will not be fought only in the skies over Iran. It will be fought in the oil market, in the headlines, and at the ballot box. That is how Trump could try to blast open the Strait of Hormuz. And save the elections.
8.SOURCE NOTES
CNN reporting dated October 15, 2026, as supplied in the background material: reported U.S. MOAB contingency planning for Iran.
Bloomberg and Jerusalem Post reports supplied by the author: Trump’s Newsmax remarks and discussion of Pickaxe Mountain.
Defence Security Asia background supplied by the author: MOAB specifications, MC-130 delivery, blast-versus-penetration distinction, and uncertainty concerning underground targets.
