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IAEA sees no major damage at Iran nuclear sites

June 16, 2025

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, stated in a press conference on Monday that there are no signs of further damage at the Natanz or Fordow enrichment facilities in Iran. “The agency is and will remain present in Iran. Safeguards inspections in Iran will continue as soon as safety conditions allow, as is required under Iran’s NPT safeguards obligations,” Grossi told journalists. He also informed that the electricity infrastructure at Nazans was destroyed, and the loss of power to a cascade hall may have damaged the centrifuges there.

NN: Trump needs to authorize the dropping of the bunker buster bomb on the Nazans and Fordow nuclear weapons sights and end this

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This Is The Beginning For Israel

June 15, 2025

In the wee hours of Friday morning, Israel launched not merely a string of attacks on Iran, as had been the case with recent incursions, but the start of an all-out war, whose goal seems to be the destruction of not just the country’s nuclear facilities but also its military command and, possibly, the Islamic regime itself. The question now is what happens next. Iran has pledged to inflict “severe punishment” against Israel, but its first retaliatory strike, involving 100 drones, did little if any damage. Will Iran soon launch hundreds of ballistic missiles, as it has in the past? Will this trigger a wider war in the region? Will the U.S. get pulled into the fight, despite President Donald Trump’s deep reluctance to get directly involved in a war? And how will Israel’s campaign—by far the largest and most ambitious it has ever mounted against Iran—reshape the dynamics of the entire Middle East?

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Look No Further Than The Straits

June 14, 2025

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Good Cop Bad Cop

June 12, 2025

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Trump: Great job by National Guard in LA

June 8, 2025

United States President Donald Trump said the National Guard is doing a “great job” in Los Angeles after he deployed it there to quell protests against his administration’s handling of immigrants. However, the New York Times reported that no members of the National Guard have been seen in the area. Trump accused California Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass of being “incompetent” in dealing with the demonstrations. He also claimed the protests were started by “instigators and often paid troublemakers” and said that demonstrators will not be allowed to wear masks.

nn: elon are you paying attention?

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Trump says Iran should ‘stop enriching’

June 7, 2025

United States President Donald Trump threatened that if Iran did not stop enriching uranium, the US would stop it “the other way” during an interview on Air Force One.

When asked about comments made by Ayatollah Khomeini that Iran has to enrich uranium, Trump responded, saying that “no, they won’t be enriching,” because “if they enrich, then we’re going to have to do it the other way.”

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Oil Bulls Bite Back as Prices Defy Expectations

June 4, 2025

  • OPEC+ confirmed another 411,000 bpd production increase for July, but oil prices rose instead of falling.
  • Additional supply disruptions from Alberta wildfires and strong seasonal demand expectations helped offset concerns over weaker Asian oil imports.
  • Analysts expect demand to rise into the summer, with ING and Goldman Sachs both citing tighter market conditions

OPEC+ did what everyone expected it to do last weekend, announcing another production ramp-up. Prices, however, did something that not everyone expected them to do: they went up. All eyes are now on demand—and the disruption of supply. The eight members of OPEC+ that were keeping their production of crude oil under restraints agreed on Saturday to add another 411,000 barrels daily to their combined total in July after making identical agreements for May and June. The news followed speculation reported by the media that the cartel could add more barrels this time just to teach everyone a lesson. That speculation had weakened prices. The OPEC+ decision essentially had no effect on them. But events that coincided with the OPEC+ meeting did have an effect.

First, there was the Ukrainian drone attack on targets within Russia. The attack prompted expectations of more, with the targets this time part of Russia’s oil infrastructure, leading to supply disruptions.

Then there is the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, which just got more unlikely, with media reporting Iran was about to reject the latest proposal of the United States. This, in turn, means, that U.S. sanctions against the country will remain in place, notably the noose around Iran’s oil industry. Iran was not going to agree to completely halt its uranium enrichment activities, which the U.S. has proposed as a condition for reaching a deal, Reuters reported, so the prospect of a deal became distant again.To add to the bullish developments, wildfire season in Alberta has started prompting production shutdowns, to date affecting more than 340,000 barrels daily. This is equal to 7% of the total, Reuters noted, but it has been enough to fuel a price rally—and imply that demand for oil is healthier than many like to argue. Once again, oil market players were reminded that it’s not so important what this forecaster or another says about demand and how global supply exceeds it. It’s important what happens in the real, physical world, and in that world, demand for oil remains as robust as it has been since the end of the pandemic lockdowns, the gradual weakening of China’s appetite for crude notwithstanding. “Demand is set to pick up as we move into the summer months, suggesting prices are likely to remain relatively well supported,” ING commodity analysts wrote in a new note today, after earlier this week Goldman Sachs somewhat grudgingly acknowledged seasonal oil demand patterns that point to equally stronger prices ahead. “Relatively tight spot oil fundamentals, beats in hard global activity data, and seasonal summer support to oil demand suggest that the expected demand slowdown is unlikely to be sharp enough to stop raising production when deciding on August production levels on July 6th,” the bank said in a note Monday. 

Indeed, not only is geopolitics making oil bears nervous, but summer driving season is advancing, and the shock of Trump’s tariff-first approach to trade policies is subsiding.

Oil is currently quite affordable, which would stimulate demand, and its immediate supply outlook is uncertain, which often acts as fuel for prices. 

 

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June 2, 2025

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Damning IAEA report spells out past secret nuclear activities in Iran

June 1, 2025

  • AEA board requested ‘comprehensive’ report on Iran
  • Describes past secret programme, current poor cooperation
  • Western powers plan resolution against Iran at board
  • Resolution would declare Iran in breach of obligations
  • Iran’s stock of near-bomb-grade uranium jumps again
VIENNA, May 31 (Reuters) – Iran carried out secret nuclear activities with material not declared to the U.N. nuclear watchdog at three locations that have long been under investigation, the watchdog said in a wide-ranging, confidential report to member states seen by Reuters. The findings in the “comprehensive” International Atomic Energy Agency report requested by the agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors in November pave the way for a push by the United States, Britain, France and Germany for the board to declare Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations. A resolution would infuriate Iran and could further complicate nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington.
 
Using the IAEA report’s findings, the four Western powers plan to submit a draft resolution for the board to adopt at its next meeting the week of June 9, diplomats say. It would be the first time in almost 20 years Iran has formally been found in non-compliance.
 
Iran’s foreign ministry and the Iranian nuclear agency rejected the report, calling it “politically motivated” in a joint statement. They said Tehran will take “appropriate measures” in response to any effort to take action against the country at the Board of Governors meeting, state media reported, without elaborating.
 
Tehran says it wants to master nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and has long denied accusations by Western powers that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. While many of the findings relate to activities dating back decades and have been made before, the IAEA report’s conclusions were more definitive. It summarised developments in recent years and pointed more clearly towards coordinated, secret activities, some of which were relevant to producing nuclear weapons.
It also spelled out that Iran’s cooperation with IAEA continues to be “less than satisfactory” in “a number of respects”. The IAEA is still seeking explanations for uranium traces found years ago at two of four sites it has been investigating. Three hosted secret experiments, it found.
 
The IAEA has concluded that “these three locations, and other possible related locations, were part of an undeclared structured nuclear programme carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material”, the report said. Nuclear material and/or heavily contaminated equipment from that programme was stored at the fourth site, Turquzabad, between 2009 and 2018, it said.
“The Agency concludes that Iran did not declare nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three undeclared locations in Iran, specifically, Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad,” the report said. At Lavisan-Shian in Tehran, a disc made of uranium metal was “used in the production of explosively-driven neutron sources” at least twice in 2003, a process designed to initiate the explosion in a nuclear weapon, the report said, adding that it was part of “small-scale” tests.
The report is likely to lead to Iran being referred to the U.N. Security Council, though that would probably happen at a later IAEA board meeting, diplomats said. More immediately, it is likely to lead to Iran again accelerating or expanding its rapidly advancing nuclear programme, as it has done after previous rebukes at the board. It could also further complicate talks with the United States aimed at reining in that programme.
 
A separate IAEA report sent to member states on Saturday said Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, had grown by roughly half to 408.6 kg. That is enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick. Both IAEA reports said enrichment to such a high level was “of serious concern” since it is the only country to do so without producing nuclear weapons.
 
Israel, which has long urged strong action against Iran’s nuclear programme, said the IAEA report showed Tehran was determined to complete its nuclear weapons programme. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the world should act now to stop Iran from doing this.
 
U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA have long believed Iran had a secret, coordinated nuclear weapons programme that it halted in 2003. Iran denies ever having had one.
 
In Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said later on Saturday that President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff “has sent a detailed and acceptable proposal to the Iranian regime, and it’s in their best interest to accept it.” She declined to provide further details. Araqchi said in a post on X that Iran “will respond to the U.S. proposal in line with the principles, national interests and rights of people of Iran”.
 
 

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