The War has Started

United States President Donald Trump’s country-specific tariffs as of 12:01 am ET have been activated. Chinese goods now face a massive tariff rate of 104%.

China so far is not backing down in this very dangerous  tariff war. I am seeing China starting to liquidate part of its vast holdings in US government debt. Rates are riseing which is great for our upcoming zero bond trade in the next few months.

I belive in the SHORT term China will cease hostitiltes

China said it would “fight to the end” and take countermeasures to “safeguard its own rights and interests” after United States President Donald Trump escalated his tariff threats against the Asian nation.

The statement came after Trump said on Monday that he would impose an additional 50% tariff on China, effective Wednesday, if Beijing doesn’t withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariff on US goods. “The US’ threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which once again exposes the US’ blackmail nature,” China’s Commerce Ministry said.

“China will never accept this. If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” the ministry stressed.

nickguarino.com

United States National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Monday that President Donald Trump is considering pausing tariffs for all countries except China for a period of 90 days.

THIS IS A LITTLE MORE THAN A STAY IN EXEUCTION

More to come…

The cryptocurrency market plunged on Monday, with Bitcoin trading at its lowest since the November 2024 US election rally.

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant losses as global markets faced considerable stress due to the US administration’s implementation of reciprocal tariffs. 

At 2:44 am ET, Bitcoin was down 4.32%, selling at $74,981.94. Ethereum posted even deeper losses, falling 7.18% to $1,466.22.

GET OUT OF BITCOIN NOW

Trump calls this medicine temporary in nature. I call this a bear market and the start of a great depression

nickguarino.com

The Crash Has Started

Nick note:

You really need to pay attention here because we are flirting with disaster. This tariff war can easily spin out of control and devastate the global economy. the last depression was caused by the world economy shutting down in 1930 because of trade wars. It was caused by he Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act. It was a protectionist trade measure signed into law in the President Herbert Hoover.  the act raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods in an effort to shield American industries from unfair  foreign competition. sound familiar? There is no discussion the US suffers the unfair trade practices. It was allowed because politicians wanted cheap consumer goods for American citizens. The cost is  d-industrializing the country. destroys the US mining including oil, farming and manufacturing base including software. Wealth is created in these  places. And  anything that disrupts a countries ability to have these resources domestically will eventually end in disaster.  And stopping the flow of manufactured goods, food,  raw materials and digital products across borders is the road we are headed\down

When goods and services stop crossing border then armies willl

Trumps mistake here is abruptly stopping the flow of goods and services and materials with the entire world. He is dramatically increasing the cost of those goods.  This is going to spin out of control.  Let me warn  you the odds are 70% that we will be in a global recession in the next 6 months. And the odds are more than 60% that that global recession will lead to a global depression.  It may be too late to stop it. Calmer heads need to prevail immediately and slow escalation of tariffs which are taxes.  These abrupt changes as you are seeing has led to a stock market that now is a major correction in just 3 days.  An economy that’s going into a nosedive. Most important thing is the psychological effects on people  as they watch their retirement accounts wipe out and their costs of food and goods increase by 25% across the board. You should be damn scared and rightly so.  Here’s my warning to you this could end up in the 1929  depression and  stock market wipe ou.t But hear me it’s far worse this time because there’s a huge amount of debt by citizens corporations and governments and that has a great chance of being defaulted on.  That’s when it’s game set match. We have to reorganize the world out of the ashes of World War III cuz could. come from this